Wiktoria Bednarz, author of the article, which is part of the Demographic Change in Europe report. , is a law student at the University of Rzeszów. Her interests include criminal law, labour law and human rights issues. On a daily basis, she tries to be active in the academic community – she is a Student Ombudsman and is on the board of two scientific societies. In addition, scientific activities accompany her every day.
According to the United Nations definition, an ageing society is one in which the number of people of post-working age exceeds more than 7 percent of the total population (Łobodzińska, 2016). Current and future demographic changes are closely linked to a number of socio-political transformations. They began primarily in the 1960s. The emancipation of women and an increase in their labour force participation are cited as the main cause. These changes are described by Dirk van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe’s (van de Kaa and Lesthaeghe, 1987) concept of the second demographic transition. At present, there is a significant decline in fertility rates and, at the same time, an increase in human life expectancy. There are many reasons for this phenomenon. Women are deciding to become mothers later and later, and the dominant family model is the ‘2+1’ model or not having children at all. This is largely due to a consumerist lifestyle and an individualistic approach to life. The situation is also not helped by numerous divorces and the formation of informal relationships. The increase in life expectancy, on the other hand, is due to major advances in science, which is having a significant impact on the health sector. This, in turn, leads to an improvement in the quality of health (M. Maier, 2017).
The effect of depopulation is the progressive ageing process of the Polish population, which began in the early 1990s and is still in the process of development. It is mainly expressed by an increase in the number of people in the post-working age and a decreasing number of people in the pre-working age (Ciura and Szymańczak, 2012). These phenomena significantly affect the demographic structure of the country and are of a permanent nature. On the other hand, they are related to the functioning of the entire demographic mechanism, which ‘consists in the fact that there is a dynamic feedback loop between fertility and birth rates and the age structure of the population: a decreasing birth rate causes a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population and, consequently, an acceleration of the ageing process. In turn, the older the age structure, the lower the number of births. These mutually driving processes in the long term may cause such profound changes in the population structure that a negative ‘momentum’ of population growth, i.e. a permanent decline in population resulting from its age structure, will emerge’ (Kiełkowska et al., 2013).
The ongoing and continuing changes in the population structure are significantly affecting most of the country’s socio-economic sectors. At present, this impact can be clearly seen in the labour market. It is natural that an ageing population means an ageing population. Therefore, a measure is still being sought to help prevent a crisis in this area and to enable its development.
In order for the so-called simple replacement of generations to occur, the fertility rate should take a value of 2.1. In Poland, the last time the index was above this level was in 1988 (Central Statistical Office, 2023).
Its level has for many years remained at around 1.5, which was synonymous with having a low fertility status. On the other hand, the result of 1.26 recorded in 2022 means that Poland has reached the phenomenon described as ‘extremely low fertility’ (Kiełkowska, 2013). According to even the most optimistic forecasts, the aforementioned simple replacement of generations will not occur by 2060. On the other hand, according to the projections of the ‘low variant’, we will face a decline in fertility over the following years (Central Statistical Office, 2023). This, in turn, will negatively affect numerous aspects of socio-political life.
Crisis and the labour market
According to ManpowerGroup’s 2023 Talent Shortage report, one of the most obvious and visible effects of the demographic crisis on the labour market is a significant shortage of workers (ManpowerGroup, 2023).
As already mentioned, there is a huge demand for them, which will continue to show an upward trend. Research carried out in 2023 by Eurobarometer indicates that one of the most serious problems facing small and medium-sized enterprises located in the European Union is the shortage of skilled labour. This problem affects all Member States, as well as all sectors of the economy. Many employers (representing the industrial sector in particular) indicated that labour shortages are resulting in reduced or even lower production levels (Eurobarometer, 2023).
The declining number of people of working age poses a major challenge to the economy itself. Declines in the labour force will occur with negligible unemployment. This is an undesirable situation due to the lack of a reserve of people who would be ready to enter into an employment relationship. In the current situation, assuming the scenario of no inflow of foreign labour, market mechanisms would lead to a dynamic increase in wages and an excessive increase in labour costs leading to a deterioration in the profitability of firms, a reduction in the scale of their operations or the abandonment of new investments (Uścińska et al., 2022). This situation would be extremely unfavourable for the economy as it would result in a halt in the rate of its development, which most often results in a decrease in the GDP index.
The demographic crisis poses a major challenge for the labour market. The shrinking number of people of working age will result in increasing economic stagnation over the next few years. Changes need to be made immediately at many levels – systemic, social and economic, and their implementation requires the involvement of many actors – both private and public.
Fot. Unsplash
