The article was written by the Scientific Group on International Relations, based at the Catholic University of Lublin.

One of the most rapidly escalating issues affecting highly developed societies is demographics. Several decades of peace since the end of World War II have facilitated a demographic explosion, but this period has also introduced various negative phenomena related to demographic issues. This article will explore the impact of societal aging on national security, using the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation as examples.

Demographic Context of China and Russia

Current Demographic Situation in China and Russia

Recent statistics indicate a growing demographic crisis in China, where an increasingly smaller number of young people are deciding to start families, resulting in a declining birth rate. In 2023, China’s population decreased by 2.087 million people, reaching 1.409 billion. This decline marks the second consecutive year of population reduction, exceeding the previous period’s decrease of 0.85 million. During the same period, there was a significant reduction in the 16-59 age group (by over 10 million people), totaling 864.8 million, and their share of the overall population decreased to 61.3%.

In 2023, China experienced a greater population decline than in the previous year, when the country’s population decreased by 850,000 people. This is the first such decline since 1961, when the country went through the Great Famine under Mao Zedong. According to information from the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate in 2023 was a record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, compared to 6.77 births in 2022..  Turning to the demographic situation in the Russian Federation, it is closely linked to the country’s economic and social aspects, making demographic policy issues particularly important. We observe a decline in income levels and the consequences of the sanctions regime, which affects social tensions, inflation, and the unemployment rate. 

An additional factor is the so-called “Special Military Operation” in the Russian Federation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly worsened the already critical demographic situation in Russia. Military recruitment and substantial emigration exacerbate problems of low natural growth and declining life expectancy. The population composition is changing, with a noticeable exodus of young, educated men and an influx mainly of elderly people, women, and children from Ukraine. Despite extensive efforts by President Vladimir Putin to counter these demographic challenges through various national programs and initiatives, success has been limited. The current military engagement and the diversion of resources to the conflict further undermine the possibility of reversing these negative demographic trends. The above-mentioned factors, along with urbanization and disparities in regional development conditions, determine the qualitative potential of Russia’s demography.

The population of Russia in January 2018 was approximately 146.88 million, placing the country ninth in the world. Special attention is paid to migration, as there are about 10 million migrants in the Russian Federation, of which around 4 million are in the country illegally. Most migrants are concentrated in large cities such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg, which burdens the economic situation and social welfare. The population is unevenly distributed across the country, with about 68 percent living in the European part of Russia and the rest in the Asian part, which is much less populated. There is also a significant number of nationalities and ethnic groups, with the majority being Russians (81 percent), Tatars (3.9 percent), Ukrainians (1.4 percent), and others.

Additionally, the main problem of demographic policy in Russia is the low birth rate, making it a challenge for the country to increase this rate. Various measures are being taken to stimulate ч natural growth, including financial support for families with children, the development of preschool infrastructure, and providing housing for young families. 

 One-Child Policy in China

The current demographic crisis stems from the period of Mao Zedong. After the famine of 1959-1961, there was a rapid demographic explosion from 1962 to 1971, resulting in 277.9 million births. In response, the authorities introduced the first restrictions on the number of children in the family in 1970, known as the “two-child policy.” Despite these restrictions, population growth remained high, leading to further tightening of the policy in the 1980s, limiting the possibility of having children to one in cities and two in rural areas (provided the first child was a girl). The implementation of these regulations was supported by draconian measures such as forced sterilizations and abortions, even in advanced pregnancy.

The human cost of this demographic experiment was enormous. According to official data from the Chinese Ministry of Health, 336 million abortions were performed in China up to 2014. State interventions in the private lives of families resulted in financial penalties and repressions against those who did not meet government expectations, including imprisonment or suicides. Abortions mainly affected girls, as in the culture of one child, millions of rural families wanted to have a son who could inherit the farm. This led to a gender imbalance where 117 to 120 boys were born for every 100 girls, which in turn fueled the trafficking of women from poorer neighboring countries such as North Korea.

Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, in 2015, China abandoned the “one-child policy” in favor of promoting larger families. Nevertheless, cultural changes opposing pro-natalist trends, budgetary constraints, low immigration, and the declining number of women of childbearing age pose challenges that may be difficult to overcome. As a result, the demographic collapse will significantly impact China’s domestic and foreign policies.

The Impact of the War with Ukraine on the Demographic Situation in Russia

Russia faces serious demographic problems that have been further complicated by the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This conflict not only contributes to direct human losses but also generates a range of long-term demographic challenges that can significantly impact the country’s future.

The war with Ukraine has led to the forced displacement of millions of people. Over 2.8 million people have moved from Ukraine to Russia since the beginning of the conflict, and more than a million people from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have had to flee or were deported to Russia over the past ten years. Many of these people have received Russian citizenship, including about two million Crimeans after the annexation of this territory in 2014. The Russian authorities, seeing this as an opportunity to address the demographic crisis, actively integrate these people into Russian society, treating them as a new population resource. However, these actions are part of a broader demographic strategy that can be seen as an attempt at demographic engineering.

Russia’s participation in the conflict with Ukraine partly stems from deeper concerns about the country’s social reproduction. Russia struggles with a population decline due to low fertility and high mortality, especially among men who often die before reaching the age of sixty. In response, the Russian government tries to apply “traditional values” as a solution, promoting policies that increase fertility, such as introducing the title of “Hero Mother” for women who give birth to and raise many children. However, these policies receive various social reactions, often criticized for attempting to restrict reproductive freedoms and life choices, especially for women. Russia, trying to address the population deficit, particularly those of working age and capable of military service, found in the displaced people from Ukraine a potential source of “new” citizens. This policy, while aiming to reverse demographic trends, raises a number of ethical and legal issues, especially in the context of international accusations of war crimes and human rights violations. Various integration programs that simplify obtaining citizenship for refugees are evidence of this.

Despite these efforts, there is still uncertainty about the effectiveness of these policies in addressing Russia’s demographic crisis in the long term. The question remains whether the displaced Ukrainians will choose to permanently link their future with Russia or will seek to return to their country as soon as circumstances allow. In any case, the outcomes of these actions will have a lasting impact on Russia’s demography and social structure.

Forecasts for Future Demographic Trends

From the very beginning, the “one-child policy” in China was a subject of controversy among demographic experts, who warned of the long-term negative effects of its implementation. CCP leaders ignored these warnings, focusing primarily on rapidly reducing population growth. Local authorities often falsified birth statistics to gain financial and political benefits, further distorting the demographic situation.

The real picture of China’s population likely emerged only in the early 21st century, when the digitization of household registration data and the household registration system began. Nevertheless, family policy reforms faced resistance from the party-state apparatus, which used its power over the population for political purposes and personal benefits. Only under Xi Jinping’s rule was local resistance overcome, and the National Family Planning Commission was dissolved in 2013, replaced by the National Health and Family Planning Commission. In response to the demographic crisis, the policy allowing for two children was introduced in 2015, and in 2021, it was further expanded to allow for three children. Despite this, the liberalization of family policy did not result in a significant increase in the number of births in subsequent years.

According to Ivan Aleshkovski’s analysis, forecasts for future demographic trends in Russia indicate a continuation of the demographic crisis, which will have profound social and economic effects. It is expected that Russia’s population will continue to decline, a trend that began in the 1990s, attributed to both low fertility and high mortality, especially among men of working age. Russia will face significant population aging. It is projected that the proportion of elderly people will increase, causing a rise in the “demographic burden,” the ratio of elderly people to those of working age. This will have a significant impact on pension systems, healthcare, and other public services. Russia is likely to continue relying on immigration to mitigate the effects of population decline and societal aging. Migrants can help fill the labor market gap, but they will not completely solve the demographic problems. The declining population and aging society may limit Russia’s ability to maintain its economic position and influence on the international stage. A smaller working-age population may hinder economic growth and increase the burden on the social care system.

Impact on national and international security

The impact of demographic changes on the defense strategies of China and Russia

Demographic changes in China are increasingly influencing the defense strategies of this country, both domestically and globally. The decline in population, especially in age groups responsible for military service, presents the Chinese authorities with challenges related to ensuring a sufficient number of recruits for the army. Additionally, the declining birth rate may affect China’s potential military-economic capabilities and its ability to conduct prolonged defensive or interventionist operations. In the face of these challenges, China may be compelled to rethink and adjust its defense strategies. This is significant both domestically, where internal stability and territorial defense are priorities, and internationally, where China is playing an increasingly prominent role as a global political and military actor. With the declining population, China may need to increase investments in modern military technologies and defensive capabilities to compensate for potential personnel shortages. Additionally, demographic changes may influence China’s geopolitical interests, its relationships with neighbors, and its defense policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

In the longer term, demographic destabilization may also impact China’s security policy, both domestically and internationally. Chinese authorities may need to reconsider their role in the region, approach to armed conflicts, and international relations to effectively manage the challenges arising from demographic transformations. Demographic changes significantly impact Russia’s defense strategies, reflecting the country’s long-term interests and historical determinants that shape its development directions. Russia’s demographic strategy, affecting population dynamics and its geographical priorities, mirrors the nation’s long-standing national interests shaped over centuries. From a historical perspective, Russia, like other European powers, engaged in the colonization of new territories, directly influencing its demographics. Population displacements to newly acquired lands, though later than other European nations, contributed to territorial expansion and population growth, crucial for maintaining the country’s geopolitical status.

Demographic changes such as declining fertility and an aging population affect recruitment capabilities and the effectiveness of the armed forces, prompting Russia to reconsider its demographic and migration policies to ensure a sufficient number of people capable of military service. Russian defense strategy is closely linked to demographic policy, aimed not only at increasing fertility but also integrating immigrants who can support the country’s workforce and defense. This underscores the importance for Russia of managing demographics to maintain a military-ready workforce and overall national defense.

The Impact of Demographic Changes on the Economy

The decline in population leads to a loss of human capital, resulting in fewer entrepreneurs, innovators, and skilled workers. Improvements in healthcare and overall development have extended the average lifespan, which, combined with lower fertility rates, accelerates the aging process of society. Although China has made significant strides toward a more technologically advanced production model, many companies still rely primarily on manual labor. This results in increased labor costs and hinders competition in the global market. Additionally, China cannot rely on a significant number of migrants, further exacerbating challenges related to labor shortages. However, in the short term, there is no expected drastic shortage of workers as the country has a substantial pool of part-time workers.

Demographic changes also have a significant impact on the economy of Russia, as detailed in a study using the Bayesian VAR model. The research results indicate that demographic changes have significantly contributed to the slowdown in Russia’s economic growth in recent decades. The continuation of the demographic shift towards an older population is a likely factor that has boosted GDP growth in Russia over the past few decades. The analysis revealed that over the last decade, demographic effects no longer had a significant impact on changes in the GDP growth rate in Russia. Therefore, future GDP growth in Russia will likely depend more on structural productivity growth, new technologies, and workforce efficiency, and less on demographic changes.

While changes in the age structure of the population previously affected the economy through changes in savings, consumption patterns, investments, and the labor and housing markets, this influence now appears weakened. The main challenge is managing the economy in the context of an aging society, which may lead to a decline in domestic savings, subsequently lowering investments and economic growth. This suggests that Russia may face difficulties in maintaining its current pace of growth without significant reforms in economic and social policies addressing demographic challenges.

Implications for International Foreign Policy and Regional Stability

The accelerating demographic decline not only impacts China’s domestic policy but also its international stance. Even during the mid-Hu Jintao era (2003–2013), there was a notion within party elites about China closing its “window of strategic opportunity.” It can be argued that such an assessment stemmed, among other factors, from the Communist Party leadership’s realization of an impending demographic crisis and its negative impact on the state’s economic and political potential. Xi Jinping’s selection as leader and the unprecedented concentration of power in his hands were also driven by an awareness that time was no longer on China’s side. Consequently, population issues may propel party leaders to expedite Beijing’s agenda on the international stage: pushing the United States out of East Asia, gaining control of Taiwan, and reshaping the existing world order in favor of the PRC in a way that it can better cope with the effects of aging and shrinking population.

An analysis of Russia’s demographic and migration policies reveals profound implications of these phenomena for international foreign policy and regional stability. The impact of demographic changes on Russia is primarily manifested through a decline in population and societal aging, prompting the country to seek new demographic and economic solutions, such as promoting immigration. The decline in population and ongoing societal aging necessitate actions by the Russian Federation to reverse negative demographic trends. Like other developed countries, Russia seeks to attract migrants, particularly from post-Soviet countries, as evidenced by its policies facilitating citizenship acquisition and employment. Migrants are tasked not only with filling labor market gaps but also with contributing to the country’s demographic stabilization.

However, reliance on migration can lead to various social and political challenges. Migration becomes a key element of Russian demographic policy; however, the influx of migrants can also lead to social tensions and integration challenges. Therefore, Russia faces the challenge of managing this migration in a way that minimizes social and cultural tensions while maximizing economic benefits. Demographic changes also impact Russia’s international foreign policy, particularly concerning its relations with neighboring countries, which are major sources of migration. The increase in migrants from post-Soviet countries affects regional stability and cooperation, especially concerning migration management and migrant rights protection. Russia’s demographic challenges influence its international relations, especially as the country strives to maintain its population and workforce at an adequate level.

Additionally, migrant flows and migration policies can lead to internal tensions, which in turn affect relations with neighboring countries. This issue is particularly significant in the context of growing migrantophobia and xenophobia, which can impact social cohesion and Russia’s international relations. Russian migration policy, while aimed at increasing fertility and reversing demographic trends, requires further action to integrate migrants into society and manage the social and political implications associated with increasing population diversity.

Future Scenarios and Adaptive Strategies

Overview of Possible Adaptive Paths for China and Russia to Address Demographic Challenges

The central authorities in China are focusing on promoting a traditional family model and encouraging having more children in the name of patriotism. In October 2023, Xi Jinping, in his address to the Congress of the Chinese Women’s Federation, emphasized the crucial role of women and called for establishing a “new trend of family values.” Additionally, he emphasized the need for “actively promoting a new culture of marriage and parenthood and strengthening education on young people’s views on marriage, procreation, and family.” However, such appeals may face limited response, especially as they clash with the expectations of the majority of society. Therefore, the CCP resorts to legal measures, such as making divorce procedures more difficult by introducing a mandatory “cooling-off period” in 2021 and recommending that courts under the party’s jurisdiction minimize the number of divorce applications accepted, resulting in 66% of them being rejected in the first instance. There are even absurd situations, such as refusing to grant a divorce to a victim of human trafficking who was forced to marry the man who bought her. Domestic violence is also often covered up or trivialized by the authorities.

In pursuit of implementing a pro-natal policy, the Chinese government seeks to engage authorities at various administrative levels. In 2022, the State Council announced that “local authorities should provide preferential housing conditions for large families, such as allocating larger communal apartments.” However, regional decision-makers have limited influence on demographics despite propaganda efforts by the central authorities. A key challenge is the insufficient number of women of reproductive age, which decreased by over 40 million between 2010 and 2020. Therefore, even with adequate social incentives, the increase in fertility may be limited by a small population base, which at best would allow for a slowdown in the declining trend but will not halt the demographic crisis.

Russia, like China, faces a range of demographic challenges, including an aging population, low natural population growth, and migration of young people to cities or abroad. To address these challenges, Russia may consider several adaptive paths, which will be outlined below:

• Adaptive migration policy: International cooperation, as demonstrated by collaboration with China in education and science, can contribute to mutual benefit from international talent and academic migration. Russia can leverage its digital economy to reform its migration system, facilitating international flows and providing better opportunities for integration and adaptation for migrants. For example, increased cooperation with Chinese educational institutions can enhance the flow of students and researchers, contributing to demographic rejuvenation and cultural enrichment.

• Strengthening pro-natal policy: Similarly to China, Russia could increase efforts to promote higher birth rates by offering benefits to large families, such as preferential housing conditions, family allowances, and support for child education. Empowering women in society and encouraging them to have more children could be coupled with modern forms of support, such as digital tools for managing healthcare and education.

• Investments in technology and education: Responding to the growing needs of the digital economy, Russia can invest in education and training in new technologies. Offering educational programs that prepare young people for work in future sectors such as AI, cybersecurity, and others could attract young people to stay in the country and contribute to their later reproduction.

• Cultural integration and adaptation: Similar to adaptive strategies in other countries, Russia could work on better integrating immigrants, which could ultimately bring demographic benefits. An adaptive migration policy could help with better adaptation and integration of citizens arriving in Russia, increasing their willingness to settle and start families.

These strategies would require a coordinated approach that combines government policy, private initiatives, and international cooperation to effectively address demographic challenges. Drawing from experiences and innovations such as those discussed at the Russian-Chinese congress, Russia could effectively reframe its approach to demographics for the new era.

The Role of Technology and Innovation in Mitigating the Impact of Population Aging on Security

Authorities are also considering alternative solutions to the issue besides increasing fertility rates. Robotics is mentioned as a potential remedy to the labor shortage. China also aims for technological advancement and shifting higher up in the international division of labor to take over more advanced production from Western firms, requiring investments and limiting the scope for creating large-scale social programs. However, reversing the demographic pyramid will affect the country’s investment capabilities. The number of retirees will increase, leading to not only a cessation of savings but also a necessity to increase expenditures. This will indirectly affect the savings potential of their working children, who will have to assist them. So far, the PRC has funded economy-driving projects from deposits made by citizens in state banks. However, the potential of such investment funding mechanisms will gradually diminish.

Summary

Population aging is one of the most significant demographic challenges faced by many developed countries today, including China and Russia. In the case of China, these issues are intensively analyzed but less present in public discourse. Demographic changes in China have a profound impact on both domestic and international policy, limiting economic opportunities and necessitating a rethink of both social policy and defense strategy.

In the context of Russia, the problem of population aging is equally serious and directly impacts both national and international security. The increase in the number of elderly citizens relative to the working-age population leads to increased pension and healthcare burdens, questioning the country’s long-term financial stability. Russia also struggles with low fertility rates and the emigration of young, educated citizens, further complicating attempts to reverse negative demographic trends. Russia’s demographic policy, in the face of an aging population and declining population, focuses on promoting fertility and integrating immigrants. These policies are a response to the need to maintain a workforce capable of supporting the economy and national defense. Like other powers, Russia must adjust its political, economic, and defense strategies to manage the demographic effects that could impact its future. Unlike China, which employs various measures to address the demographic crisis, such as promoting higher birth rates and integrating technology into societal management, Russia may need to apply more drastic and innovative solutions. This may include increased focus on migration as a means to improve demographic structure, as well as investments in health and education to improve quality of life and population productivity.

In conclusion, both China and Russia face complex demographic challenges that require both domestic and international adaptive strategies. As history and current actions demonstrate, the effectiveness of these strategies will have a long-term impact on the global stability and internal social and economic cohesion of both countries.

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